Trade War Deadline Looms 😬 Carney Spills The Beans 😲

by | 13 Feb, 2019

1. Trade War Deadline Looms

With the trade war’s March deadline inching closer, President Trump has shown his intentions to extend the due date to hash out the finer details of the arrangement between the world’s two largest economies. However, while this sounds all hunky-dory, there may be some more concerning factors at play below the surface.

While the press releases have been filled largely with positive overtures about “constructive and serious” trade talks, there has been a distinct lack of any concrete evidence of progress between the two warring parties.

An extension could mean one of two things. Either both parties are cognisant of the economic impact of reaching the deadline without a deal or there are some sticking points in the negotiations that have yet to be resolved.

The market has mostly priced-in the positive side of the equation with Wall Street rising during yesterday’s session and Asia opening mostly in the green this morning. Tangible evidence of a trade deal or the latter is likely to rule sentiment for the coming weeks with emerging market equities and currencies likely to feel the biggest effects of any developments.

Let’s all hope they can button this thing up ASAP. We don’t need another October-style fire sale!

2. Carney Spills The Beans 

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, spilled the beans about the potential economic fallout from a no-deal Brexit. And to say it’s not pretty would be a serious understatement.

While his speech focused on the outlook for the global economy and Brexit, he also spoke out against the rising tide of protectionism and trade wars which threaten the “delicate equilibrium” of trade and markets. He’s not wrong there!

Carney argued that, “A no-deal, no-transition Brexit would be an economic shock for this economy … and it would also send a signal globally about the prospects of refounding globalization.” The subsequent fallout would damage living standards substantially and a weaker Pound would not have the positive impact forwarded by some Brexiteers.

On the flip-side he urged lawmakers to reach a deal that could see the formation of a new basis for international trade built on a more equal balance between domestic and supranational interests.

All-in-all some sage words ahead of the Brexit deadline which, at present, could produce any outcome. Tick-tock goes the Brexit countdown clock.

 

Today we are watching…

1. Cisco Systems (#csco)

Cisco bumped up a few percent during yesterday’s session ahead of its earnings announcement today in what may be a positive sign of a potential earnings beat. Shares have risen 19% since Christmas, outperforming its peers by quite some distance. The company has seen surges in its application and security divisions, and the trend may continue into 2019 as the firm draws neck-and-neck with Apple thanks to its recent downturn. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.72 on revenue of $12.41bn.

2. AIG (#aig)

The bears are coming out in force against AIG whose fourth quarter has been a rough one to say the least. Weaker performance in the property and casualty market, unfavourable forex volatility and a number of catastrophic claims paints a rather poor picture for AIG ahead of its earnings today. Even though the company made progress with the restructuring of its General Insurance branch, net-interest income still managed to decrease by 3.2% during the quarter. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.47 on revenue of $12.2bn.

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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED © INVSTR LTD. 2018

Risk Disclosure:

Invstr is a technology platform, not a registered broker-dealer or investment adviser. Invstr does not offer its own recommendations of any security or provide its own research to any user regarding any security transaction or order.

Please note, investing involves risk and investments may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Brokerage services of US-traded securities, including fractional trading, are provided to Invstr users by DriveWealth, LLC a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA/SIPC. DriveWealth may not establish investment accounts to residents of certain jurisdictions. 

DriveWealth provides no tax, legal, or investment advice of any kind, nor does DriveWealth give advice or offer opinions with respect to the nature, potential value, or suitability of any securities transaction or investment strategy. DriveWealth acts as the clearing firm for securities transactions entered on the Invstr mobile platform. DriveWealth is not affiliated with Invstr. Invstr does not participate in DriveWealth’s decision-making.

There is no minimum initial deposit required to open an investing account with DriveWealth. Expenses and Fees associated with the DriveWealth platform in conjunction with Beanstox includes either a monthly membership fee of $4.99 with a commission charge of $0.01 per share* or, in the event the membership fee is not paid, a commission charge of $0.0125 per share applies, subject to a minimum of $2.99 per transaction. There are no monthly minimum fees, or required ongoing minimum account balance. For non-resident aliens, there is a one-time tax verification fee of $5.00 (representing Form W-8BEN pass-through processing cost). View a full list of our fees at http://bit.ly/DWFees

The monthly subscription charge is four dollars and ninety-nine cents (US$4.99) per month plus one cent (US$0.01) per share traded (as examples, for a Transaction of 0.90 shares, the per share traded charge is one cent (US$0.01), and for a Transaction of 1.6 shares, the per share traded charge would be two cents ($0.02), and the quarterly subscription charge is fourteen dollars and ninety-nine cents (US$14.97) every 3 months plus one cent (US$0.01) per share traded. The monthly and quarterly subscription charges may be greater or less depending on additional services offered by a DriveWealth partners as part of the subscription model offering, or based on any subsidies provided by a DriveWealth partner as part of the subscription model offering. For non-resident aliens, there is a one-time tax verification fee of $5.00 (representing Form W-8BEN pass-through processing cost).View a full list of our fees at http://bit.ly/DWFees

This communication is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Investing in securities carries risk, including the loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future returns, which may vary. Online trading has inherent risk due to system response and access times that may be affected by various factors, including but not limited to market conditions and system performance. An investor should understand such facts before trading. The risks associated with investing in international securities, including US-listed ADRs and ETFs that contain non-US securities include, among others, country/political risk relating to the government in the home country; exchange rate risk if the country's currency is devalued; and inflationary/purchasing power risks if the currency of the home country becomes less valuable as the general level of prices for goods and services rises. Before investing in an ETF, an investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expense of the investment company carefully. ETF prospectuses are accessible within the mobile application via a link under each company’s “Description.”

A fractional share is a share of equity ownership that is less than one full share. Fractional share investing has certain limitations and restrictions that investors should understand prior to purchasing fractional shares: ownership of less than one full share does not give the fractional share owner the right to vote on company matters; fractional shares are non-transferrable, meaning they cannot be transferred to another brokerage firm; and fractional share orders will be accepted as market orders only. For more information and details on fractional shares, and any associated limitations or restrictions please visit: https://drivewealth.com/fractional-shares-disclosure

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