Toppling World Leaders
At the going rate, President Trump and Boris Johnson will be lucky to make it to Christmas! As cries for impeachments and resignations ring out, investors find themselves drafting back-up plans… just in case.
In a single trading session, markets players on both sides of the pond were sent into a spin as pressure mounted on two lookalike world leaders. President Trump is on the wrong end of a formal impeachment inquiry after alleged collusion, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson isn’t faring much better. A supreme court ruling found BoJo guilty as charged for illegally proroguing parliament (and lying to the Queen). In normal times, their races would be run. However, these are not normal times!
Usually, it’s a bad idea to mix investing and politics. However, as chief investment officer Peter Boockvar points out from Bleakley Advisory Group, “this is a news-driven market.” Even if it meant the end of the trade war, news of Trump being driven out would still send investors to panic stations. That’s according to history when Bill Clinton was accused of obstruction of justice in 1998. The market plummeted 20% from previous highs.
Even if BoJo refuses to budge from his Prime Ministerial hot seat, the verdict of the supreme court against him will bring parliament back together today. Brexit debates will resume, which may put Members of Parliament more in control of the process than Boris himself. The chances of no Brexit whatsoever have risen. However, it’s still anyone’s guess as to whether markets will be cushioned with a deal or not if the UK does leave. A bad day at the office all around!