Today’s Seismic Economic Indication
On the first Friday of each month, the world takes stock of a bellwether economic sign. Nonfarm payrolls are on tap again, and given the festive timing, today’s big reveal couldn’t be more clutch!
The state of the US economy is a global concern, with US markets representing a third of the world’s 69-trillion-dollar market value, according to the World Federation of Exchanges. If American materialism is to thank for anything, then it’s for buttressing spending habits and keeping the US economy upright during tepid times for the rest of the world! Elections, riots, and trade tensions mean it’s all eyes on the yanks to save Christmas!
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) reveal the change in pay packets across the United States. 80% of the population is covered, excluding farmers, as the name suggests, and the unincorporated self-employed. A rising nonfarm payroll number suggests more businesses are hiring. Cyber Monday proved that if folks have the means to go out and spend, they will. So, in a virtuous cycle for stock pickers, corporate earnings should also increase given a positive NFP figure, leading to even more hiring and spending.
At 13:30 UST, drop what you’re doing and tune into whatever the US Department of Labor has to say. The consensus for the golden number is 180,000. However, if we manage 180,001 or better, stocks and the US dollar will probably rise. If the figure falls short of expectations below 179,999, investors might cozy up to bonds and gold instead. Inflation and 2020 rate hike fears would subside, if there were any to begin with, and that would favor more “risk-off” assets. Your festive retail picks could move on this one, too. Hold onto your butts!