The Updated Post-Brexit Forecast
Great Britain has gone from rule under a prime minister that didn’t believe in Brexit, but had to go along with it (Theresa May), to rule under a prime minister that does believe in Brexit and is eager to get the formalities done (Boris Johnson’s Tories). The clock is ticking on a free trade deal before year-end, and now markets are starting to wonder if one’s coming at all.
The House of Lords may be mentally preparing for a hard, hard exit. International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss, stood before it yesterday to present a forecast of what happens to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Britain based on post-corona deals it can cobble together.
It’s a revised Oxford University report suggesting that while those deals could be worth about 15% less collectively than if the UK just stayed in the European Union. It’s not a huge price given that uncounted growth is expected domestically, but it is still 15% less in international trade and Brussels will leverage that fact in trade talks; “we don’t need you, you need us.”
The free trade deal with Brussels alone would represent half two and a half percent of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2030, according to the report, so getting a deal is paramount. The FTSE 100 stock exchange in London will remain cheap as none are brewing!
I am not a financial advisor and my comments should never be taken as financial advice. Investments come with risk, so always do your research and analysis beforehand.