The Big Game Indicator
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went head-to-head in the 50th Super Bowl. Some die-hard NFL fans were ecstatic their team won while others were upset because their team lost or because they lost some money placing bets online. Whatever the case, the outcome of the Super Bowl affects people’s mood, specifically investor mood. Investor mood can influence financial markets, so does this mean the Super Bowl can influence financial markets?
In 1978, a sportswriter from the New York Times named Leonard Koppett introduced the Super Bowl Indicator, a theory that a Super Bowl win from the NFL’s American Football Conference (AFC) indicates a bear market in the upcoming year and a Super Bowl win from the National Football Conference (NFC) indicates a bull market in the upcoming year.
According to Investopedia, as of January 2020, Kopett’s Super Bowl Indicator has been correct 40 out of 53 times, a 75% success rate. And at one point in history, the Super Bowl indicator was successful 90% of the time. Regardless of whether there is a real connection between the winner of the big game and the stock market’s behavior, a 75% success rate is impressive.
According to the Super Bowl Indicator, since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football Conference won the Super Bowl, we should expect a bull market in the upcoming year. Tell me, do you feel like the NFC win will influence your behavior in the markets?
I am not a financial advisor and my comments should never be taken as financial advice. Investments come with risk, so always do your research and analysis beforehand.