September’s Job Boom
Following the higher-than-expected job openings report for August, investors suspected the same may be true for September. On Friday, these notions were brought to life when the US Labor Department released September’s nonfarm payrolls that beat expectations by a landslide. After the Dow Jones estimated job growth of 170,000, payrolls actually increased 336,000 for September, nearly doubling the forecasted growth. Being the best monthly addition since January, the figure sent markets far into the green as investors’ worries over a recession were eased. Alongside payroll growth were wage increases that were softer than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.2% month over month compared to the forecasted 0.3%.
However, the normally positive news for the economy may have the chance to keep interest rates higher for longer. From the eyes of the Fed, such a robust labor market may get in the way of efficient disinflation, and another rate hike by the end of this year is certainly possible to tame labor’s strength. The chances of another rate hike before the end of this year have increased to 43%, with more data needed before investors can properly speculate over the FOMC’s call next meeting. This upcoming week, the next batch of economic data investors should pay close attention to should be September’s CPI and PPI, which have the potential to sway the Federal Reserve’s decision coming November 2nd.
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I am not a financial advisor and my comments should never be taken as financial advice. Investments come with risk, so always do your research and analysis beforehand.