With the Coronavirus smacking the economy down hard in March, employment figures in April of 2020 were the worst ever seen since 1948. After this, things did start to improve, however, and slowly the unemployment rate slowed down. Recently things have once again shifted for the worse despite projections. In December of 2020, analysts expected a rise in employment with 75k jobs, but instead the outcome was much worse with ADP reporting a 123k drop in employment in December of 2020.
The internal breakdown of job loss was interesting with both small and large businesses losing jobs but with medium size companies gaining jobs. Even with these growing trends the stock market hasn’t had much reaction, only sometimes reverting direction with small dips before quickly returning to the mega-rally that started just weeks after the initial crash. No matter what reality seems to be, investor optimism is just too strong right now and some are even questioning whether or not employment is a necessary factor in markets anymore because in the past year it has been largely ignored and as of today, the Democrats are projected to win the Senate. Do you think unemployment numbers will ever reach a breaking point for markets? Or is investor optimism too powerful?
I am not a financial advisor and my comments should never be taken as financial advice. Investments come with risk, so always do your research and analysis beforehand.