Poll: Life Under Lockdown
“With much of the world in Covid-19 lockdown, when will life and the markets get back to normal?”
- 42% By summer.
- 36% End of the year.
- 13%: Matter of weeks.
- 9%: Years and years.
These final poll results are a testament to how quickly things can change.
Just days ago, the bulk of our community had voted for a weekly resolution. Now, the majority of us believe we’re in for more of the same until the warmer months, when various “quant models” suggest social distancing measures and humidity will have “flattened the curve” to near zero.
The last thing we want is a second wave, so governments won’t lightly give out the order to go back to normal. If we “send the virus packing,” as infected British Prime Minister Boris Johnson puts it, then experts say it will be thanks to social distancing compliance and mass-testing. If it takes until year-end or later, it’s more likely a vaccine coming to our rescue.
For the record, biotech players are racing to develop that cure, but picking the triumphant firm is a lottery. Medical technology (MedTech) stocks like Abbott Laboratories and Henry Schein are both up as affordable testing kits are pioneered, and their roll-out shared to meet desperate hospital demand. However, investors need to be careful about moving money amid a global crisis moving so fast. Sentiment can change at any moment.
If 42% of the community is reading the tea leaves correctly and we are indeed out of this crisis by the summer, the next question is how do the markets rebound? There could be months of repair work to be done (rehiring, paying back emergency debt), and that could threaten the idea of a short-term V-shaped pattern.
However, there’s also an awful lot of pent up demand. Could we even see the fall of Zoom, Slack, and other stay-at-home stocks when investors’ desert those safe havens? We’re sure to find out before the end of the year, according to more than three-quarters of our community. Stay safe!