Poll: Crash, Bank, Wallop!
“What will cause the next major pullback in the U.S markets?”
- 41% Covid-led business closures
- 21% US Presidential elections
- 14% Huh? It’s all up from here!
- 12% Global tensions
- 12% Social unrest
If there are Covid-led business reclosures, social unrest gets amped and global tensions come to the boil again. It’s a flashing red bear signal to see the Invstr community vote so decisively for the worst-case scenario. Maybe we should take it as a sign that 2020 has more to throw at us!
If we take this poll again in a month, national polls suggest presidential elections could win. The Donald has lost the swing-states, and as we’ve established, few people trust these stock market highs. Joe Biden intends to undo tax cuts, which would certainly pullback markets.
It was surprising to see global tensions tied for last. The United States is pointing the finger squarely at China for this pandemic, the two largest economies in the world rekindling their trade war. China is also drawing the ire of American politicians for taking Hong Kong by force.
It was also surprising to see our poll’s only bullish option neglected given the market rally we’ve been through, showing the distrust in stateside reopening measures. It seems we’re all decided that stocks are headed down despite the Federal Reserve’s best money-printing efforts, but we’re keeping buying anyway!