Can Trump Delay the Election? 📥

by 7 Aug, 2020

Can Trump Delay the Election?    

President Trump is tracking national polls like a hawk. He’s had just over 40% of the provisional vote since January, unable to usurp democratic nominee Joe Biden with 50%.

President Trump hopes to turn this around in a debate with Biden, but failing that, he’s already started painting a narrative about the mail-in, covid-era voting process being “susceptible to fraud.” This might be true, or not – no one really knows.

The point is that Trump never picks a fight he can’t win. He doesn’t think this election will be a fair fight with mail-in voting, so he’s threatening an emergency order to delay it.

The markets will never price that in; it’s not going to happen. It’s been constitutionally impossible since 1845, and to change that, President Trump would need to convince the democratic House of Representatives to help him out. They impeached him only last year!

President Trump is a masterful campaigner and the electoral college is on his side, so don’t write him off. This will be a close election. Biden winning means tax cuts rolled back and falling stocks in the short-term.

Trump winning means markets rising in the short-term but a parallel dart to safe havens like gold, even though it could be the more stable outcome (think about the potential for riots, military coups, and the drama of moving him out of the White House physically!).

I am not a financial advisor and my comments should never be taken as financial advice. Investments come with risk, so always do your research and analysis beforehand.

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