Biden Is Winning!
The average American checks their 401(k) unhealthily often (set it and forget it!), making the economy, measured in stock market gains, a sitting president’s main reelection weapon!
This time, jobless claims are in the tens of millions, and the public is unconvinced we’re going back to business as usual after reopening. The stock market’s on a tear regardless, so the public is showing unprecedented wisdom, disconnecting it from the economy!
The Wall Street Journal’s latest poll suggests that while 54% of Americans trust Trump to handle the economy, 40% of those same pollsters are still planning to vote for Joe Biden. If this poll rings of truth come November 4th, and that’s a big ‘if,’ then President Trump might be disarmed!
Joe Biden leads the swing-states and the national polls. If he takes over, tax hikes are expected. The bull market will lose its sparkle if stocks fall eight percent to undo gains that came from the cuts, but ironically, executives would be worst off under Biden are out there donating to the guy in the in hopes of scoring a dream White House job!
The most affected stocks on election night will be healthcare giants threatened with extinction by Medicare-For-All. Joe Biden promises reform, not revolution, but these stocks will still trend down sharply if he gets in. The same goes for defense stocks like Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin, as Biden is less war-ready than Trump.
It’s all a speculation. Consider William Henry Harrison, 1841, who contracted pneumonia at his inauguration and died a month later. The stock market still went up, so best not to mix politics with investing. It would be unwise to consider a stock pick an election bet, per say, but that’s not to say a personnel change won’t bring massive market stories!